Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Cote d'Ivoire
  • Suriname
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Uzbekistan

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,850$ on 2020-10-22

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $406$ on 2020-10-22

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,380$ on 2020-10-22

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $97,019$ on 2020-10-22

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,046$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,989.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,989.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,273$ on 2020-10-22

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $465,726$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281,275.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(281,275.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,968$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,120.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,120.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $169,302$ on 2020-10-22

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,407,702$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,373,486.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 152.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,373,486.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $223,032$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215,867.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 93.6)}}\) (asimptote \(215,867.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,831,614$ on 2020-10-22

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $813,451$ on 2020-10-22

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,437$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,314.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(41,314.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $766,362$ on 2020-10-22

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,969$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,868.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 102.4)}}\) (asimptote \(93,868.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,930$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,793.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,793.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $103,039$ on 2020-10-22

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $403,874$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{364,990.8}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 112.0)}}\) (asimptote \(364,990.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,960$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,187.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,187.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $85,135$ on 2020-10-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Cote d'Ivoire recovered 97%
Suriname recovered 95%
Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Uzbekistan recovered 77%
Israel recovered 76%
Senegal recovered 74%
El Salvador recovered 71%
Peru recovered 71%
Maldives recovered 66%
Colombia recovered 60%
Bolivia recovered 59%
Bahrain recovered 56%
Venezuela recovered 56%
Tajikistan recovered 55%
Dominican Republic recovered 44%
Estonia recovered 42%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 40%
Bangladesh recovered 32%
Burkina Faso recovered 32%
India recovered 32%
Panama recovered 17%
Montenegro recovered 13%
Sierra Leone recovered 4%

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,390$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,730.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 101.3)}}\) (asimptote \(19,730.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 82.1)}}\) (asimptote \(123.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $181$ on 2020-10-22

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,154$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,178.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,178.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 142.7)}}\) (asimptote \(118.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50$ on 2020-10-22

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $343,774$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{336,456.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.9)}}\) (asimptote \(336,456.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,250$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,283.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 121.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,283.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,343$ on 2020-10-22

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $64,439$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,859.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 151.4)}}\) (asimptote \(68,859.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $540$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{563.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 137.1)}}\) (asimptote \(563.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,241$ on 2020-10-22